The Oscars (2013)

It's that time of year again, folks! Awards Season culminates this Sunday with the Academy Awards, and although I never usually agree with their selections I follow it religiously, so before you fill out those Oscar ballots and place your bets give this a glance.

Here are links to the nine Best Picture nominees if you want to know my thoughts in depth:
"Amour", "Argo", "Beasts of the Southern Wild", "Django Unchained", "Les Miserables", "Life of Pi", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Zero Dark Thirty"

This has been an usually good year for films and there are some very close, very exciting races. Although nobody is very sure of who is going to win in many categories, I will give your best bet, a close contender and then my own personal opinions. Note: although I have seen all Best Picture nominees I have not seen films in several of the other categories.

* Best Picture: It was almost a lock in the early races that "Lincoln" was going to claim the gold, having the most nominations and a towering performance from Daniel Day-Lewis, not to mention being directed by one of the most well-regarded filmmakers working. But win after win for "Argo" has made it the top contender. At this point there is pretty much nothing to stop Ben Affleck's CIA drama. After all, although the Academy loves biopics, presidents, war films and period pieces, what they love more than anything else is patting themselves on the pack. As much as "Argo" is about the Iranian Hostage Crisis it is also very much about Hollywood's impact outside of their own, smug little bubble.

Will Win: "Argo"

Could Win: "Lincoln"

Should Win: Although my personal favorite film this year is "Life of Pi" (At least as far as the nominees--"The Master" is my actual favorite), the year's best film is Kathryn Bigelow's masterful "Zero Dark Thirty". "Argo", then, does not seem like such an odd choice, as it is essentially "Zero" without the torture, the political condemnation, and a heaping helping of high-horse syndrome.

* Best Actor: If there is anything such as a dead-lock this year, it's Daniel Day-Lewis's portrayal of Abraham Lincoln in "Lincoln". He was the front-runner even before anyone had seen the film. If you look at the last ten years, five Best Actor winners have played historical figures. The Academy just really likes it if you can channel a real person. That is not to short change Day-Lewis; his performance proves once again that he is our generation's Marlon Brando, and that is about the highest praise I could ever give to an actor. Also, his win will make him the first actor ever to win three Best Actor statuettes, even more than Brando, and place him second only to Katharine Hepburn.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Could Win: Nobody, but for the game's sake Hugh Jackman once had a shot.

Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix gave the best performance this year in Paul Thomas Anderson's "The Master" as the troubled and violent Freddie Quell. He was an early favorite, but after trashing the Academy and awards ceremonies in general he practically dug his own grave. Nevertheless, it is dark and extremely frightening bit of acting.

* Best Actress: This is one of the closest and most interesting of all the categories this year, as their are three perfectly legitimate choices: Jessica Chastain, Emmanuelle Riva and Jennifer Lawrence. For a while it seemed that Riva had this in the bag, having been in a foreign film which received nominations in three of the other major categories, but as time has gone on that momentum has gone through a curious ebb and flow. Chastain has been the favorite of critics, Lawrence the choice of audiences. Right now it seems safest to say that Lawrence will win for her work in "Silver Linings Playbook". After her Oscar-nominated work in "Winter's Bone", and the amount of prolific and fine work she has done, combined with the fact that she is 22 and untrained, I think the Academy is ready to honor her. However, Riva is making a small comeback and could sneak it right out from under her, making her the oldest Oscar winner in the history of the category.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva, possibly Chastain. Sorry to be so wishy-washy. It's that close.

Should Win: I've gone back and forth between Riva and Lawrence, and finally decided that it should be Riva. I finally had to go back to the trite phrase "acting is reacting", and was able to come to the conclusion that as a standalone performance Lawrence takes it. However, for what an actor should be, Riva's chemistry with Jean-Louis Trintignant was far stronger than Lawrence's with Bradley Cooper. Therefore, Riva has it for me.

* Best Supporting Actor: Possibly even tighter than the Best Actress race is Supporting Actor. For the first time in who knows how long there are four actors who would be appropriate choices (Sorry Alan Arkin, you have no chance). Right now we are in a dead heat between Christoph Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones. You could basically flip a coin to decide between the two. Phillip Seymour-Hoffman had initial momentum and was a critic's favorite, but his chances are failing. Robert De Niro, on the other hand, could surprise everyone and steal it, as he hasn't won an award since "Raging Bull". Frankly, I think everyone is just glad to know the once greatest working actor hasn't completely lost his magic. This is also an interesting category in that all five nominees are past winners. My picks are almost arbitrary.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz. I think they want "Django" to win in something, as Tarantino's chances for his screenplay are dwindling.

Could Win: De Niro may surprise us all, but Tommy Lee Jones is your next best pick, or possibly even a better one.

Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman. He and Phoenix in "The Master" were two parts of the same whole. Collectively, they made a--excuse the pun--masterful performance.

* Best Supporting Actress: Finally, a bit of direction. It's Anne Hathaway. Surprise. The princess lost her diary and her hair, warbled a bit and broke our hearts in Thomas Hooper's...ahem...underwhelming "Les Miserables". Although people are annoyed with her fake humility at previous ceremonies, there is no denying that she pretty much made what would otherwise have been an unwatchable film.

Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Could Win: I'm not sure how, but Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln is seen as the next choice. I thought she was an enormous blemish on that movie and that she should never act again, but what do I know? Anyway, nothing short of Field's husband being shot in the Ford Theater could earn her the gold.

Should Win: Hathaway. I loved Amy Adams, but Hathaway just did such a damn fine job in that one song. The rest of her performance was forgettable, but I can't deny good acting when I see it.

* Best Director: This was the category which had everyone scratching their heads when nominations were announced last month. No Tarantino? No Affleck? No Bigelow? Who the hell is that Frenchman, or that first-timer? I assume there is going to be some vote-splitting, giving Affleck his Best Picture and Stephen Spielberg Best Director for "Lincoln". It's more a film you can appreciate than enjoy, but there's no denying it's well made. That said, we could see surprises from Ang Lee or Michael Haneke, who impeccably directed two of the most mesmerizing movies this year. Even David O. Russel has a shot, with his crowd pleasing "Silver Linings".

Will Win: Stephen Spielberg

Could Win: Ang Lee

Should Win: Ang Lee moved me to tears with his extraordinary "Life of Pi". Not only has he proven himself one of the most versatile directors in the field, but he turned and unfilmable book into a breathtaking masterpiece. I would love for him to walk away with the Oscar simply to give his work a bit more credit than just in the technical categories.

* Writing - Original Screenplay: I was certain that Quentin Tarantino would take the Oscar for "Django", and although I am not completely unconvinced, the Writers Guild Award winners have made me pause. Tarantino is not member of the Guild and therefore wasn't eligible for the prize, but I had completely counted out "Zero" for almost everything at the Oscars until I saw that Mark Boal had won. Could he be a contender? Probably not, but I guess we'll see.

Will Win: "Django Unchained"

Could Win: "Zero Dark Thirty"

Should Win: "Django Unchained". I love Tarantino. I might not always get his style, but as I mentioned in my review of the film I think that this may well be his turning point. There is a level of maturity to the work which I have not previously seen from him, and above all else the guy just has an amazing ear for dialogue.

* Writing - Adapted Screenplay: I'd imagine that Tony Kushner is the front runner for "Lincoln", which I found stilted, but critics loved. However, unlike the Original Screenplay category, Kushner is a member of the Writer's Guild and lost to Chris Terrio's "Argo". I still think they will go with "Lincoln", though.

Will Win: "Lincoln"

Could Win: "Argo"

Should Win: This is one of the weakest categories for me, but I'd have to go with "Beasts of the Southern Wild". I found its bayou poetry really endearing.

* Animated Feature: "Brave"

* Animated Short: "Paperman"

* Foreign Language Film: "Amour"

* Cinematography: "Life of Pi"

* Costume Design: "Anna Karenina"

* Documentary Feature: "Searching for Sugar Man"

* Documentary Short: I have no idea. "Inocente"

* Editing: "Argo". If it comes out as "Lincoln", change your Best Picture choice immediately.

* Makeup and Hair Styling: "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

* Music: "Life of Pi"

* Original Song: "Skyfall"

* Production Design: "Les Miserables"

* Short Film - Live Action: I have no idea. "Curfew"

* Sound Editing: "Life of Pi", unless they have no idea what they're doing, then it will be "Argo"

* Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables"

* Visual Effects: "Life of Pi"


God, that was a chore. Good luck!

*Post-show update: Well that was a fun, exciting Oscars this year! Match 'em up, I called most of them. In the future I should go with my better judgement. It's impossible to think like an Academy member, really (not that I want to), but there were some interesting surprises. The only one really worth noting was the much deserved second Oscar given to Ang Lee for directing. I wanted it, and for some inexplicable reason, I got it. How he trumped the Goliath known as Spielberg is beyond me -- perhaps it was actually realized that although they could appreciate a film like "Lincoln" it wasn't really all that enjoyable a watch? Perhaps the nomination was enough to make them rest easy? Or perhaps it was simply that Ang Lee is one of the best and most versatile directors we are privileged to have working right now who, once again, managed to make another masterpiece.